Could Rick Porcello be the Tigers closer?

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

From Day One, the Tigers have said that Bruce Rondon was their first choice to be the closer this season. The rest of the baseball world wondered, why would they pick a rookie who is walk-happy? Well, Detroit appears to be having second thoughts.

In 3.2 innings of work Rondon has failed to get a 1-2-3 inning, allowed five hits, three runs, walked five and posted a 2.72 WHIP. None of which are what you like to see out of a closer, so it appears General Manager Dave Dombrowski will have to start looking elsewhere for his hammer out of the bullpen.

Detroit is supposedly looking outside the organization for a closer to trade for, likely trying to use Rick Porcello as trade bait to see what they can get for him. But finding a closer is hard, and trading for a proven one is even harder.

The logical place to look for a closer is Washington, where the signing of Rafael Soriano has left Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard on the outside looking in. Although the Nationals has a glut of closer-types, signs out of D.C. are that they aren't looking to part with them readily, if at all.

Perhaps the Red Sox' Andrew Bailey would appeal to the Tigers, but from all accounts the two clubs have yet to speak at any length in regard to the closer. That could change however, with Detroit looking to nab themselves a late-inning man quickly.

With the closer market being as thin as it is, Detroit could look within to fill the role. The obvious choices would be either Phil Coke, Octavio Dotel or Joaquin Benoit, but they each serve a valuable role in the bullpen and struggle with batters on the other side of the plate. Could the solution be the man Detroit has been trying to trade away?

What if Porcello was the closer? That would allow Drew Smyly the fifth spot in the rotation. And what features does one look for in a closer? They must be able to throw strikes and get ground balls that can easily be turned into outs. Porcello does both of those things.

As a ground ball, contact-pitcher Porcello is often at the mercy of his defense over the length of a typical start. But as a closer, Porcello could get a few grounders and get off the mound quickly. In a typical Porcello start, he starts strong and starts to struggle as the game goes on. So using that, the shorter his outings the better his performance.

Porcello still gets his ground balls and makes contact with the bat, which is how you know he's on his game, but as long as the defense behind him can turn three grounders into outs he could be a great closer.

Tigers Octavio Dotel says Miguel Cabrera isn't a leader

By Sean Gagnier
 
Octavio Dotel has been on 13 teams and in 752 MLB games, meaning that he knows what goes on in the locker room and what needs to be said in crunch time. Which is perhaps why Dotel told Yahoo! Sports that teammate Miguel Cabrera was not a leader because he didn't call a team meeting during the World Series last season.

It is surprising that Dotel would bring this up during Spring Training, which is usually a happy time when there is very little controversy, but there could be a kernel of truth to this statement.

When Victor Martinez went down, there was an obvious leadership vacuum on the Tigers that was never really filled. The 2011 Tigers were lead by Martinez and his son "Little Victor," but 2012 brought with it no new leaders for Detroit.

General Manager Dave Dombrowski has said that his team lacks leadership before, and even manager Jim Leyland has said that Cabrera isn't vocal in the locker room and that his personality doesn't lend itself to being a clubhouse leader.

So take it as you may, but perhaps the wily veteran of 13 ballclubs could just be right, and the Tigers need to find themselves a new leader.

2013 American League Predictions

By Sean Gagnier

American League East

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa pulled off a huge trade with the Kansas City Royals after last season, sending Wade Davis and James Shields to the Royals in exchange for top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Ororizzi to Tampa.

The Rays already had excellent pitching, so they were able to trade away some of it in order to fleece the Royals for their best prospects.

Tampa retained slugger Evan Longoria and added several key position players, such as Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar. If the Rays offense can get things rolling, their pitching will carry them the remainder of the season.

There may be a fight to be had with the Blue Jays or Yankees down the stretch, but this is Tampa's division to lose at this point.

American League Central

 Detroit Tigers

It's hard not to see Detroit winning this division for a third straight season, with the addition of Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez coming back from an ACL tear, this team is the best on paper going into 2013.

Hunter wanted nothing more than to join the Tigers this offseason, and he got his wish. He will lock down a right field in Comerica Park and provide a solid fixture in the No. 2 spot in the order ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

Did you forget about them? The Triple Crown winner and one of the scariest bats in the game?

Offense will not be a problem for the Tigers this season, neither will pitching, as Detroit resigned Anibal Sanchez and made perhaps the strongest rotations in the game.

What will make or break the Tigers will be their bullpen. Just like in 2012, if the Tigers struggle to close out games then the Central will be a tight race, but if Bruce Rondon is what Detroit says, then this division could be wrapped up by July.

American League West

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels are perhaps the most intimidating team, but after a lackluster year last season, it remains to be seen if they can put together a solid season.

Last year the baseball world was abuzz as the Angels brought in Albert Pujols, this year, they opened the checkbook again and brought in Josh Hamilton. Add those two to the impressive young duo of Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout and Los Angeles will scare any opposing pitcher.

Ryan Madson was brought in to fill the closers role for the Halos, but the starting pitching is what will propel this team in one direction or the other. Yes, the Angels boast Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, but after that, the order falls to Tommy Hanson, Joe Blanton and Jason Vargas. Not exactly an All-Star lineup.

While the Angels have stocked up on big bats, they have let their pitching slump and have gotten slower on the basepaths. A traditional Los Angeles team is one that puts pressure on the pitcher with the threat of stealing a base, but with as many big bats as they now have, the base stealing numbers won't be as high.

If they can adapt to become a slugging team and get some solid pitching out of the bottom of their rotation then they will beat out the Oakland Athletics for the division.

American League Wild Card

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays pulled off two big trades in the offseason, netting R.A. Dickey, Mark Buerhle, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Josh Thole and Mark Nickeas. Safe to say, they improved themselves.

Toronto's rotation now looks like this; Dickey, Johnson, Brendan Morrow, Buerhle, and Ricky Romero. Now that's a rotation that can compete in the AL East.

In addition to a much improved pitching staff, the Jays still have Jose Bautista's bat and Reyes' legs, not to mention the offseason signing of Melky Cabrera. If Cabrera can still mash without his PED's he will help make this Jays team quite formidable in the AL East.

Who knows, if the Rays can't get their offense going, the AL East crown could easily be heading north of the border in 2013.

New York Yankees

It hasn't been the best couple of months for the Yankees, first Derek Jeter breaks his ankle in the ALCS and then Alex Rodriguez becomes embroiled in yet another PED scandal.

That aside, this is still an impressive team on paper. Names like Jeter, Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano just jump off the roster at you.

The Bronx Bombers resigned Ichiro Suzuki, brought in Travis Hafner and should have a healthy Brett Gardner to start the 2013 season. In a bam-box like Yankee Stadium, those names will produce very lopsided numbers.

However, like last season, it will all depend on the pitching. Sure, C.C. Sabathia is back, but after that, the rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Following Sabathia is Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettite, Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova.

Questions also surround the bullpen, that will have Mariano Rivera return, but his effectiveness is yet to be seen after season ending surgery last year. His mid-season  replacement, Rafael Soriano, has yet to find a home this offseason, meaning that should Rivera not be his old self, or should something happen to him, the Yankees will be scrambling for bullpen help.

New York could go either way, but will be in a fight with the Orioles all season to hold onto a wild card spot at the very least.

American League Champion: Detroit Tigers

Tigers' tickets will cost you more in 2013

By Sean Gagnier

It's to be expected right? When your city has a competitive baseball team with three superstars, you would expect ticket prices would be on the high end. Well, Detroit fans will soon feel the true cost of a contender.

As if last year's ticket prices weren't confusing enough, there will now be three price tiers when purchasing Tigers tickets; premium, regular and value.

Value pricing is for most games in April, May and September, with Opening Day excluded. The value pricing is meant to attract fans during school-months when the stadium is usually below capacity. Premium pricing will apply for most summer weekend games and matchups with high-profile teams, such as the Yankees or Red Sox. The regular pricing will cover the remainder of games.

Mr. Mike Ilitch will still sell you a pizza for $5, but you can no longer go see his baseball team for a fiver. The popular "Skyline" seats, code for nosebleed, will increase from $5 to $20 for premium games, $15 for regular games and $12 for value games.

Bleacher seats will also see a hefty price hike in 2013, jumping from $17 for premium games and $15 for regular games last year to $23 for premium and $18 for regular and value games.

The skyline and bleacher seats will see the highest percentage increase for 2013, but most tickets are increasing by about $5 this season.

Full ticket prices listed below (premium/regular/value), with 2012 prices (premium/regular) in parentheses.

Lower Level Tickets

On-deck circle:  $90/$85/$77   ($85/$75)
Tiger den: $85/$80/$72    ($80/$70)
Infield box: $65/$60/$52   ($60/$50)
Terrace: $58/$53/$45    ($53/$43)
Outfield box: $52/$47/$39    ($47/$37)
Lower baseline box: $43/$38/$30    ($38/$28)
Right-field grandstand: $36/$31/$23   ($31/$21)
Pavilion: $26/$21/$19    ($21/$17)
Bleachers: $23/$18/$18    ($17/$15)
Kaline's Corner: $23/$18/$18    ($18/$16)

Upper Level Tickets

Club seats: $41/$36/$33    ($36/$31)
Upper box infield: $35/$30/$26    ($30/$26)
Upper box right field: $35/$30/$26    ($30/$24)
Upper box left field: $35/$30/$25     ($30/$24)
Upper baseline box: $30/$25/$21    ($25/$19)
Mezzanine: $25/$20/$18     ($20/$16)
Upper reserved: $24/$19/$16     ($19/$14)
Skyline: $20/$15/$12     ($5/$5)
Standing-room only: N/A     ($17/$15)

Tigers look to add a right-handed bat

By Sean Gagnier

Despite boasting one of the most formidable offenses in baseball, the Tigers are still on the prowl for additional offense. General Manager Dave Dombrowski has expressed that he is still looking for a right-handed bat that can fill part-time roles in the order.

Don't expect the Tigers to hit the free agent market soon however, as Dombrowski pointed out, he would prefer to fill the role internally. There are several options the Tigers have for a right-handed batter, namely, Danny Worth and minor league 2B/SS Jeff Kobernus.

Worth has major league experience with the Tigers, turning in a .216 batting average in 90 plate appearances with Detroit last season. Although his batting average was not what the Tigers wanted, his on-base percentage hovered around .330 for the season. He also has proven that he is a capable stop-gap on the infield when the need arises.

Kobernus, 24, has yet to play in the majors after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft by the Washington Nationals. The infielder has steadily increased his batting average in each of his four professional seasons, ultimately recording a .282 batting average with Double-A Harrisburg in 2012. Kobernus reached base at a .325 rate last season, making him valuable to his club.

While Detroit is looking for a righty-hitter, they are not necessarily looking for another power hitter, as evidenced by their interest in Worth and Kobernus. The Tigers have the pop they need in the lineup, what this team needs now are role players that can play consistently and stay healthy. Worth and Kobernus appear to fill those roles. Look for both to get extended playing time in Spring Training to determine who will go north with the club.

The argument in favor of WAR

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

When it came to the American League MVP race, the baseball world was split between two camps, those who supported the use of the words above replacement statistic and those who did not. Those who did support WAR were often ridiculed for using a stat that was too "high minded" or "too abstract."

While many WAR supporters did support Miguel Cabrera winning the AL MVP, there were others, such as myself, that believed that Mike Trout was more deserving of the award. Why? Because WAR accounts for much more than just three arbitrary stats that have been singled out as superior to others.

Yes, Cabrera did win the Triple Crown. But what exactly is the Triple Crown? It is when a player is atop the league in home runs, runs batted in and batting average, but who said that those are the three most important categories?

Leading the league in batting average, RBI and home runs is impressive, but it is akin to an accounting trick. No one thought what those stats meant when they were picked as the most important, they were just singled out and are now held higher than anything else.

But why? Those stats aren't nearly as good as people believe them to be. And just because they are easy to compute doesn't mean they are superior.

While home runs may be straightforward, one must take into account how each ballpark plays and look into whether a player is hitting balls out of Comerica Park or the bambox in the Bronx.That being said, it's hard to argue with the HR stat, it is what it is.

The RBI is perhaps the most overrated stat in all of baseball. Who said that getting other players to score is more important than scoring yourself? All an RBI means is that a player gets hits when someone else is on base, he didn't do the work of getting the runner on, he simply benefits from someone else being in position.

The Triple Crown completely ignores a player's contribution to the team defensively, as does most MVP voting, both of which leave out an incredibly important part of the game that can make or break a team. A player can be an offensive wizard, but if he is incapable of fielding then he will cost his team, and that is exactly what WAR attempts to account for.

Batting average, too, is a flawed stat in that it doesn't take into account each of a players plate appearances, only the ones in which they either got a hit or headed back to the dugout. While other stats take into account each time a player gets a hit, walks, gets hit by the pitch, flies out or strikes out. That is a more accurate picture of a players performance than batting average.

The only reason people understand the formula for batting average is because at-bats have adorned the back of baseball cards for a century. If Topps had printed Plate Appearances on baseball cards instead of At-Bats, this debate wouldn't be happening.

In WAR there are more complicated formulas, yes, but statisticians and computers do most of the calculations for the fan, which makes it very similar to the formula for batting average.

While there are flaws in WAR, it more accurately depicts a complete player than the Triple Crown categories. It attempts to level the playing field of "favored statistics" and factors in all factors of being a successful baseball player.

WAR is not, and should not, be the end all, be all stat. But it should be the starting point for any educated baseball fan. Any fan that dismisses WAR and then tries to say batting average, RBI and HR's mean something is a hypocrite.

MLB bans third-to-first pickoff

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

The owners have spoken, and the third-to-first pickoff move is history. While the move very rarely worked, it was a favorite of some pitchers who wanted to keep runners honest. With runners on first and third, the pitcher would fake a pickoff throw to third prior to throwing to first, in an attempt to catch the runner leaning toward second.

The rules commission has decided that this move will now be considered a balk. It was deemed a balk because of its incredibly low success rate. It was seen as being nothing more than a waste of time and the definition of a balk.

Many pitchers would use the move to buy time for a reliever in the bullpen or simply to annoy runners on base. The move so rarely worked, you could likely count the successful times on one hand, that it was used more to see if a runner could be caught off guard or a batter tip his hand.

But looking at the move in detail shows that it fits the definition of a balk almost to a T. The pitcher motions forward prior to spinning to third and then pivoting back to first. If that isn't a balk then someone needs to redefine the term.

The banning of this move will likely have very little effect on the game, as so few pitchers actually attempted it. But it could serve to speed the game up a bit and could give a slight edge to baserunners who no longer have to worry about a trick-move catching them off the bag.

With one common sense rule change made, maybe the MLB can step into the 21st century and get some instant replay like the rest of the world.

Why the BBWAA Got It Right With the MLB Hall of Fame Elections

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

It's old news, everyone knows that the Baseball Writers Association of America did not elect any player to the MLB Hall of Fame this year, and many fans are upset. Why? Because a bunch of cheaters and undeserving players were denied enshrinement?

Deal with it.

The only player that actually deserved to get in was Craig Biggio, and he should bump his numbers enough next season to make it to Cooperstown. As for the others? They don't belong there.

Jack Morris? Read our opinion on why he should never see Cooperstown. In short, his numbers are pedestrian at best and nothing makes him stand out over the throngs of other average pitchers that fade away.

Then we get to the steroid users. It has been said that perhaps baseball should just put these players in the Hall because they were the best of their era despite taking performance enhancing drugs. Bull. They cheated and they should be barred from history.

If you want to acknowledge their achievements, fine. But leave them in the museum outside of the Hall. But Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmiero should never be inducted. They defiled the game without regard and should be punished.

Wanna say that those who took amphetamines were cheaters and many of them were elected to Cooperstown? A decent argument, but amphetamines do not physically alter a person like PED's did. Just look at Bonds, his hat and shoe size grew several sizes. (while I'm sure other things went in reverse)

These men are and forever will be, liars and cheaters. But, I am not married to the idea of keeping them out forever, I am a reasonable man.

The steroid era cheaters can be voted into the Hall when Bud Selig climbs down off his high throne of Alzheimers and senility and allows the all-time hit leader Pete Rose into Cooperstown.

Want to say that the Hall can't be taken seriously if the all-time home run leader* isn't included? The same can be said for Rose. The man was incredible on the field and deserves to be immortalized for it.

Did he bet on the game? Yes. Did he throw games or effect the outcomes of any game with his gambling? No. But he is labeled a cheat and barred for life.

So in the eyes of baseball, a man who bets on the game and on his team to win, is worse than a player that goes out of their way to deliberately cheat the game.

Sorry, but the writers got this one right.

Why Ex-Tiger Jack Morris Should Not Be a Hall of Famer

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

With the Baseball Writers Association of America preparing to vote the next class of players into Cooperstown on Jan. 9th, there are several players who are making a push for the Hall that statistically do not deserve it. There are others, that are being overlooked that are indeed worthy of enshrinement.

Ex-Tiger and Twin Jack Morris has found a new life in his pursuit of the Hall of Fame of late, but with the rise of sabermetrics, his numbers, when looked at in comparison to a similar player that was denied the Hall, could also deny Morris.

And they should.

Morris is close to reaching that magic 75 percent of the vote, but should he even be this close? No.

Yes, Morris had a fantastic Game 7 in 1991, but that does not make someone a Hall of Famer. Consistent solid numbers do, and Morris does not have that.

Morris played 18 seasons with four teams, amassing 254 wins in that time. But a deeper look into those numbers shows that he was an average pitcher, at best.

During his career, Morris posted a 3.90 ERA, that is far less than good. A pitcher with a borderline 4.00 ERA shouldn't be on the mound, let alone in Cooperstown. ERA can sometimes be misleading, so perhaps a look at Morris' WHIP would help his case? Not at all.

In fact, Morris' career 1.29 WHIP is near the high end of acceptable and bordering on demotion level for a starting pitcher. That 1.29 WHIP means that Morris allowed quite a few base-runners each time he was on the mound. A Hall of Famer should be one that keeps runners off the bases, or at least strands them, Morris' numbers show that he did neither.

Delving deeper into sabermetrics gives voters the ERA+ stat, which is a pitchers ERA adjusted to the pitchers ballpark. An average pitcher would score a 100 in the ERA+, meaning anything over 100 is below average and anything under is above average.

Morris' records show that he has a career 105 ERA+, showing that even in the cavernous confines of Tiger Stadium, where he spent 14 seasons, he was unable to post even numbers comparable to the generic average pitcher.

Maybe some voters would argue that the regular season doesn't matter as much as the post season and that Morris' playoff numbers should get him to Cooperstown. Well, they don't. They damn him almost as much as his regular season numbers.

In seven playoff series, Morris played in 13 games and turned in a 3.80 ERA, not exactly the ace performance expected of him. His WHIP, again, was inflated at 1.24 and he averaged eight hits allowed per game.

Now those are not the numbers of a Hall of Famer, and yet he is inching closer to the Hall on each ballot return. His numbers are not great, in fact they compare, unfavorably, to those of fellow-Tiger Mickey Lolich who was denied entry to Cooperstown on 15 occasions.

Lolich played 16 seasons, 13 with Detroit, and won a World Series with the Tigers in 1968. But he was denied the Hall of Fame, despite having similar, if not better, numbers to the ones that could get Morris to Cooperstown.

In his 16 seasons, Lolich turned in a sub-par ERA of 3.44, not good. But while that 3.44 ERA is bad, it is better than the one that Morris compiled. Lolich also had a 1.22 WHIP, again, not the greatest, but still better than the numbers presented to the BBWAA.

Lolich also played in the pitcher-friendly Tiger Stadium, and he too, struggled to maintain the production of the average pitcher there, posting a 104 ERA+. 

Where the postseason hurts Morris' numbers, it greatly helps those for Lolich. While Morris did have more games played in the postseason, the difference between the two is vast. In two postseason series, Lolich played in five games and came out with a 1.57 ERA.

Where Morris was allowing runners to reach base and score in the postseason, Lolich was allowing less than a runner per inning in the playoffs with his 0.97 WHIP. These playoff numbers greatly favor Lolich, but his regular season numbers do drag him down a bit.

The evidence is clear, when looking at the raw statistics, Morris compares very well with Lolich, a player who did not reach Cooperstown, and he himself, should not either.


Words Above Replacement's 2013 Hall of Fame Ballot
Alan Trammel
Craig Biggio
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith