Saturday, December 24, 2011

Bereavement Hiatus

I lost my father to cancer on Dec. 22, so I will be taking a brief hiatus from writing to deal with family matters and mourn his loss. See you all soon.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Tigers top five prospects for 2012

Tigers 3B prospect Nick Castellanos will soon be a stalwart in the Detroit lineup
At one time the farm system of the Detroit Tigers resembled the system that the Kansas City Royals enjoy today, but through multiple trades - both good and bad, the Tigers farm system no longer has the same luster it once did.

However, the future is not entirely bleak, there are many bright spots on the farm for the Tigers including Jacob Turner, Nick Castellanos and Drew Smyly.

A majority of the stock the Tigers enjoy in the minors are pitchers but Detroit is flush with talent across the diamond as well; the five best of those prospects are listed below.

1. RHP Jacob Turner, 20
A first round pick in 2009 Turner has been a prized commodity in the Tigers farm system for years and has even cracked the big league roster - making three spot starts in 2011. In his three starts with the Tigers Turner has a 0-1 record and an inflated 8.53 ERA. His WHIP is in good shape through his time with Detroit at 1.65. Despite his praise and potential his name has been mentioned in trade talks - should he remain with Detroit in 2012 expect him to take the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

2. 3B Nick Castellanos, 19
He is the real deal. Tigers fans may agree to another season or two with Brandon Inge struggling his way to retirement just so that they can see Castellanos play. In his first full season in the minors he has proved to be everything that the Tigers wanted in him. He exhibits power to all fields and is an exceptional fielder at third, I stop short of calling him a "five-tools player" after seeing Moneyball. After a full 142 game minor league season Castellanos' BA is .313, hitting 7 HR and 76 RBI. An OBP of .367 shows that he is capable of getting on base consistently.

3. LHP Drew Smyly, 22
Smyly was also mentioned in the possible trade for Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics. In that trade A's General Manager Billy Beane wanted Turner, Castellanos and Smyly in return for Gonzalez. In 22 minor league starts last season, across high A ball and into AA Erie Smyly posted a 11-6 record with a 2.07 ERA, a 1.103 WHIP and 9.3 SO/9. If he continues on this path Smyly will find himself with a spot on the roster very soon.

4. LHP Casey Crosby, 23
He struggled with control throughout the 2011 season posting a 4.10 ERA for a career ERA of 3.55 and a 19-12 record. Crosby has shown, when healthy, that he is capable of being dominant, having a WHIP of 1.37 and a 1.89 SO/9. In the past he has had Tommy John surgery but like many pitchers has come back stronger than he was previously - expect to hear his name quite a bit in 2012.

5. C Rob Brantly, 22
Drafted in the third round of the 2010 draft Brantly is one of several impressive catching prospects the Tigers find themselves flush with. He has shown that he is capable with the bat and has shown that he has the ability to play effectively behind the plate. In his two years in the minors Brantly has posted a .988 fielding percentage and has caught 32 percent of runners attempting to steal off him. Offensively, Brantly is hitting .269 with a .333 OBP between Lakeland and West Michigan. With Gerald Laird only being signed through the 2012 season expect for Brantly to take over the back-up duties in 2013.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Weekend hits on the Tigers

On Monday, the Detroit Tigers offered arbitration to all of their eligible players, except for one, Will Rhymes. Rhymes had bounced between the AAA Toledo Mudhens and the Tigers over the last several seasons as Detroit was attempting to find a solution at 2B. Technically, Rhymes was not close to being arbitration eligible because he has less than one year of major league experience, but the Tigers chose to non-tender him a contract.

Over the 2010 and 2011 seasons Rhymes had established a .283 BA with a .341 OBP but only 21 RBI, 19 coming in the 2010 campaign. After Detroit signed Ramon Santiago to a two-year deal earlier in the off season it was assumed that things would stay status quo at 2B for the Tigers - with Ryan Raburn, Santiago and Rhymes battling each other all year to become the next mediocre starter at the fourth position on the field.

Detroit's 3B search continues

Wherever Brandon Inge is sitting must always be hot, because the Tigers are again rumored to be checking into another third baseman to replace Inge in 2012. The latest to be connected to the Tigers is the 3B for the San Diego Padres, Chase Headley. 

Headley is due for arbitration this season and should be awarded $3MM by the arbitrator. The 27-year-old has a career .269 BA and a .343 OBP in his four seasons with the Fathers. Reports have the asking price in San Diego for Headley being pretty steep - in this case, the market has justified the increased price of Headley as the 3B market has all but dried up.

Detroit has inquired as to the cost of Headley and reports have them coming away thinking the price is too high - that's not to say that they have closed the door forever on the 3B from San Diego, but they will be looking elsewhere right now.

Tigers ship Perry to DC

On Friday the Tigers completed a straight-up player-for-player trade with the Washington Nationals that sent former first-round pick Ryan Perry to D.C. for a former fourth-round pick Collin Balester. Both players are right-handed relief-pitchers that haven't proved much with their time in the big leagues.

In his four seasons with the Washington Nationals, Balester has complied a 5-16 record with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.473 WHIP. While he started his career on the Nationals as a starter, in 2008, he has remained in the bullpen for the last three seasons and has shown that he is anything but consistent.

Balester's numbers have bounced around from season to season -  in 2009 he posted a 6.82 ERA and then in 2010 that number drops to 2.57 before ballooning to 4.54 in 2011. While much of this may be able to be attributed to the nature of being a relief pitcher, it doesn't exactly instill much confidence in him. He will still have to battle David Pauley for the final bullpen spot on the Tigers during Spring Training.

Ryan Perry seemed to have worn out his welcome in Detroit - General Manager Dave Dombrowski showed a lack of patience in dealing with former 2B prospect Scott Sizemore, but showed much more leniency with Perry, allowing him to struggle through three seasons at the major league level.

In his time with Detroit since 2009 Perry has amassed a 5-6 record and a 4.07 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. His numbers essentially mirror those of Balester, making this trade all but meaningless. Regardless of if it was Perry or Balester they would have to be able to prove their worth in Lakeland, FL in February in order to beat out Pauley for the final bullpen spot.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Octavio Dotel, the Tigers and the Winter Meetings

As the 2011 Winter Meetings came to a close the Detroit Tigers hadn't made the big splash that fans had come to expect, but several deals are in the works. Most notably for reliever Octavio Dotel and outfielder Yoenis Cespedes.

Cespedes hasn't yet been posted on the free agent market, but the Tigers are seen to be the most aggressive and leading candidate to secure his services. Coming out of the final day of the Winter Meetings on Wednesday the buzz surrounding the Tigers was about a reliever, Octavio Dotel.

Detroit had headed to Texas with the intention of adding a few small pieces to their bullpen and to search for a potential fifth starter. It appears as though Dotel will be the extent of the Tigers haul this winter, which is perfectly fine with the Tigers brass and fans alike.

As of Wednesday night the Tigers were seen to have Dotel in the bag, although reports had him enamored with the St. Louis Cardinals. As the night progressed Dotel and the Tigers appeared to grow closer and according to reports were only negotiating contract length.

Rumors surrounding the Tigers and Dotel have the contract being between four and five million dollars for one year with a vesting option for a second. The addition of Dotel to the Detroit bullpen creates a formidable beast out beyond the left-field fence. With the new addition the Tigers appear to have their seventh, eighth and ninth innings sewn up with Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel and Jose Valverde.

Bullpen battle brewing

Should the ink finally dry on the Dotel deal it would create a battle out in the bullpen during Spring Training between Ryan Perry and David Pauley for the final roster spot. Seeing as how Manager Jim Leyland was hesitant to use Pauley after his acquisition last season it would seem as though he would have to truly outplay Perry to make the 40-man roster in May.

Addition by subtraction

While the Tigers may not have come away from the Winter Meetings with the usual haul of players fans have become used to, it's not to say that the past week hasn't been beneficial for Detroit. During the meetings White Sox General Manager Kenny Wilson all but conceded that his club is entering a rebuilding phase with the trading of closer Sergio Santos and the fact that most of the White Sox high impact players have been placed on the trading block.

Former White Sox left-handed starter Mark Buehrle further helped the Tigers by signing a four-year, $58 million deal with the Miami Marlins. While his transition from the American League to the National League may be rocky, the Tigers can rest easy knowing that an elite left-hander will no longer be in their division.

Over the Winter Meetings the Minnesota Twins also pitched in to aid the Tigers by trading right-handed pitcher Kevin Slowey to the Colorado Rockies for a player-to-be-named-later. Once again, the Tigers will benefit from the removal of an excellent pitcher from their division.

So while the Winter Meetings may not seem like a success on the surface, the Tigers come out as the clear winners in the American League Central so far this off-season.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

The Tigers and Yoenis Cespedes

After defecting from Cuba the 26-year-old free-agent to be has landed in the Dominican Republic and has drawn the interest of very nearly every Major League team. The leading candidates for his services remain the New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals. And for good reason, this outfielder holds the Cuban-league home run record and is nicknamed, "The Talented."

The Detroit Tigers have emerged as the most aggressive team in the hunt for Cespedes with General Manager Dave Dombrowski flying down to the Dominican Republic to watch the outfielder work out. Cespedes has drawn more interest from the Tigers than any player in recent memory with one staffer saying of the Dombrowski trip to the Dominican, "I can't remember (Dombrowski) ever taking a similar step before."

All of this attention is well deserved as the slugger has regularly contributed to the success of his Cuban-league team. While the stats out of the Cuban-league are spotty and the competitiveness of the teams is unknown, Cespedes projects to be a very good major leaguer.

Many have equated the Cuban-league to a high-AA ball competition, which ask any baseball savvy individual is where major leaguers are born. His numbers out of Cuba look like this;

Year      BA      OB      SLG      HR      RBI      SB
'08        .243    .290      .388        21        77         5
'09        .262    .322      .410        19        75         5
'10        .269    .329      .412        18        66         6
'11        .266    .332      .445        27        98         13

Those numbers are very impressive and translate well to the MLB, which is what the Tigers are hoping. They believe that Cespedes can come over and play right field and lead off immediately. Austin Jackson will remain as the center-fielder, but the addition of Cespedes would free Detroit up to trade Delmon Young, they would prefer for a middle-infielder, and allow the Tigers to slide Brennan Boesch over to left field.

And if his numbers out of Cuba aren't convincing enough his representatives have released a highlight video that includes the longest introduction of all time, including a "Star Wars" style lead in.

Cespedes projects out to be a similar player to Aaron Rowand and even beyond, his numbers make him head-and-shoulders better than any other center fielder on the market. While his numbers show that he will be a very respectable major league player, he will not become a star - his stats just don't seem to support that.

The only down side to Cespedes is the contract that he is asking for; prior to his settling down in the Dominican it was assumed that he would command Aroldis Chapman-type money. That is close to the truth, Cespedes is using his fellow Cuban-defector's contract as a measuring stick. Chapman made $30 million out of Cuba, Cespedes wants double. 

The $50-$60 million price tag may scare away many of the smaller market teams and quite possibly the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox who want a bit more certainty before shelling out such sums of money. It appears as though the road is clearing for the Tigers to secure their outfielder, with his contract expected to be posted after the Winter Meetings this week.

A look into the future shows that Cespedes will develop into a very respectable outfielder with an ability to get on base and drive in runs.

Year     BA     OBP    SLG    HR     RBI     SB    WAR
'12       .270    .331     .435     23        86        9        3.3
'13       .269    .331     .439     23        84        9        3.4
'14       .267    .330     .435     22        83        8        3.2
'15       .268    .330     .436     22        86        8        3.1

Those stats aren't earth-shattering by any standard, but they are solid and appear to remain solid for many years into the future. While the Tigers don't appear to be looking to make a big splash during the Winter Meetings, they may simply be waiting to make their splash once Cespedes is posted. Look for the Cuban-phenom in the Old English D next season.